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Indian Economy General- /IEG/anon4e1c25
08/12/2019 (Mon) 01:57:4618974Mod
ITT we discuss the state of the Indian economy, various macroeconomic trends, equities and more.

To begin with, the recently released annual budget did not go far enough with reforms which many people and firms were expecting since the BJP solidified its control in the elections.

Economic growth, instead of moving towards the 8 per cent range, seems to be getting more sluggish, although we will likely remain the fastest growing major economy in the world on an annualised basis as China and the US drag each other down in the trade war.

One very interesting thing which would in my opinion be a pretty big boost for the economy (or could backfire spectacularly) is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is free trade agreement that could be finalised as early as the end of this year.

The RCEP would drastically reduce tariffs for most goods and services between the the countries which form ASEAN and six others, that is, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, it will also lead to easier movement of labour between these countries, potentially opening up opportunities for millions of Indians to move to these countries for higher income jobs over time.
anon3dd8d908/12/2019 (Mon) 09:21:1319016Mod
>>18974
You are wrong if you are expecting more than 90 iq discussion on this board.

anonab962008/12/2019 (Mon) 12:52:0019028Mod
>>19016
>Board
More like site
This Chan sucks

anonb8193f08/12/2019 (Mon) 13:09:1619032Mod
>>18974
Without tariffs, would our manufacturing sector have any hope? China is next door, transportation costs are minimal and they'll flood us. Is government planning to make up for that loss with remittances?

anon5ac24f08/12/2019 (Mon) 13:26:2119033Mod
>>19016
>>19028
Have sex

anon336a2308/12/2019 (Mon) 16:11:3519047Mod
>>19032
Our manufacturing sector never had any hope to begin with

anonb8193f08/12/2019 (Mon) 16:34:1119048Mod
>>19047
The national economy at least was a market for it. True overall though, why are our industrialists such incompetent niggers?

anona31c8908/12/2019 (Mon) 17:05:2619053Mod
>>19048
Late start+Third world economy+Indian mentality in general I guess. Maybe genes too if /pol/ is right.

anon5e43d408/12/2019 (Mon) 23:38:1119057Mod
*There is unannounced financial crisis in India. Such crises appear to the public slowly. I consider the current situation is only first round of crisis.*



• Increasing the NPA of banks means. Scarcity of capital which means no fresh investment. The glorification of bankrupt law and Continuous scams in companies

• Homes are not being sold which means sale of steel, cement, bathroom fittings, construction declining. With this banks NPAs will grow. These NPAs go deep into individual level by making the crisis deeper,

• Vehicle sales are declining. At present first time in the country sale of two wheelers are showing negative growth. Maruti has cut down production by 50%. Many of the auto dealers are closing down. This means there is substantial reduction demand for steel, tyre and other accessories.



The above three things are meant to be the end of the crores of jobs and the reduction of government's tax revenues. In such a situation, the government becomes frustrated and wants to complete its loss by putting taxes on everything, The government hands over the profits in private hands and puts the deficit in the government account. In such a situation, the government properties are sold in multiples of their favorite corporate and the losses increase.



Crisis in India will be visible around March 2020, Most of the average Indians are unaware about this. It's time to be careful when you are not able to sell soap, shampoo and detergent.

For the past few years, even the FMCG sector is also in the grip of recession-. Do you remember when you have last seen Baba Ramdev's Patanjali Company's advertisement? Patanjali was most active on TV about 2 years back., but for last one year, the condition of even Patanjali which grew at the fastest pace in India's FMCG market is alarming.. Sales of Patanjali's products is shrinking. Apart from this, Patanjali Ayurveda has shown 10% Revenue Deficit in FY 2018. Not only companies such as Patanjali but Hindustan Lever also have come down in growth. Demand for fast-selling consumer goods such as soap, toothpaste, hair oil, biscuits etc. has decreased considerably in rural areas. This has also slowed down the performance of those businesses, which are dependent on healthy rural demand. It includes FMCG, two-wheeler and auto companies that make entry-level cars.

Now come on the transport-According to the report of the Indian Foundation of Transport Research and Training, 15% drop in truck rentals has reported since November 2018. Also Fleet Utilization has dropped more than that. All 75 trunk routes, rentals have gone down substantially. Between April and June, Fleet Utilization has decreased 25% to 30% compared to the first quarter of last year. This also reduces the income of transporters by about 30%. Many operators may also come in the Fleet's EMI default in the next quarter.

There is a clear impact on the freight demand because of reduction in industrial production. Demand from the manufacturing sector, which contributes the most to truck transport, is at minimum level. Consumers spending in cities and rural areas have reduced and transportation in agriculture has almost become sluggish after the peak demand of April. In June, the demand for fruits and vegetables by FMCG has decreased by 20%.

Due to the decrease of the freight demand, truck fleet has reduced by 30% on all major routes of the country in the first quarter.

anon5e43d408/12/2019 (Mon) 23:41:1219058Mod
>>19057
I don’t think India has had a FMCG growth reduction in decades. This means people can afford toothpaste - consider how cheap toothpaste is. - and then consider that India is the worlds innovator in cheap packaging techniques.

An auto slowdown is a bad sign. An FMCG slowdown? That’s a sign so bad that you don’t want to express what it might imply.

This is not primarily because of the NBFC crisis, or any single crisis- this is demo, gst, nbfc and more piling onto each other. One after another.

Demo hammered rural demand, GST hampered rural/unorganized production and demand, NBFCs were funding risky projects which started failing - causing a debt spiral to start. This spiral has been going on for a while, and the culprit seems to be actually the risky projects and the low level of assessment when lending.

All of these things combined have tripped the economy.

However with government spending already high, I think India has little scope of survival. It depends on the rains to save rural demand, if it can.

anon60974908/12/2019 (Mon) 23:47:3019059Mod
>>19016
thankfully you turned out to be wrong

anon60974908/12/2019 (Mon) 23:51:1419060Mod
>>19032
debatable. That's why the progress with RCEP is going so slowly. The ASEAN guys and the aussies/NZ really want India to be part of the agreement but China and almost everyone else is fed up with India asking for concessions and they feel India is the much hurdle to reaching a deal on time. Of course, India has valid concerns because out of the said countries we are probably the most vulnerable

anon60974908/13/2019 (Tue) 00:01:3119061Mod
>>19048
chinks have a natural advantage in manufacturing due to their higher visuo-spatial intelligence. Plus, they've created insane supply chains in their special economic zones which actually work.

anon60974908/13/2019 (Tue) 00:10:1819062Mod
>>19057
I think the government's done a decent job with slowly but steadily tackling the NPA crisis (NPAs have generally been on a decline for some time now). However, they don't seem to have learnt much from past mistakes and are continuing to pour in taxpayer money into Public sector undertakings which is a recipe for more disasters to come.

I think vehicle sales are just experiencing very early signs of the real pain that's to come. The last few years the Indian economy has been growing pretty quickly but not quickly enough for a serious expansion of the middle class, who're the primary consumers of vehicles. Moreover, extremely disproportionate levels of new wealth are going to the top few per cent of society, furthering ensuring limited the expansion of the middle class.

Making matters worse is the fact that companies in China have such a massive massive advantage in building budget electric vehicles that our auto majors will take decades to catch up to them, and obviously we'll be between a rock and a hard place, because we can't afford to be left behind the rest of the world in adoption of EVs but at the same time mass adoption would obviously require importing cheap Chinese EVs.

anon5e43d408/13/2019 (Tue) 00:42:5019063Mod
>>19062
Indian government is spending too much.
It's unsustainable. The house of cards is going to fall eventually. If the Pajeet government was actually smart they would have tried to be fiscally conservative. But the problem with People like Modi is that no matter how convincing they sound, you cannot actually rely on them.

It's not just cars tho. Consumption of everything is falling down. Generally speaking with a population that is continuously increasing like that of Lundiya, consumption of toothpastes, soaps, shampoos or other extremely cheap but necessary items is a good indicator of the buying power of lower-middle class. If even these metrics are falling below the there is only one possible verdict. The buying ability of vast majority of Indians is decreasing. Indians are going to be in for some genuinely tough times ahead. The recession is going to hit everyone like a freight train.

While the depth of Chinese logistics is insane, it's not just that. There are multiple other structural problems with Lundiya. Even if the retards currently in charge start building Special economic zones, streetshitters could never offer the advantages that Chinks do. Chinks are relatively ethnically homogeneous. While Indians are millions of relatively small groups of different castes with inter ethnic conflicts. How exactly are you going to make millions of lower class chamaars, brahmins, Jatts and other assorted shudras work together. Not to mention the media. Westerners don't care about stunted malnourished children working in sweatshops to build them cheap products so long as that shit isn't on the news and consequently their consciousness. China and also Bangladesh and Vietnam explicitly ensure that the journalistic spotlight never falls on these slave houses. This ensures upwards economic mobility of the millions of dirtpoors who will at least be able to provide their children proper economic opportunities. If the wire or scroll or the Hindu get inside even one of these factories in India. There will be a dozen lawsuits and consequently enough drama to create a hundred documentaries. A significant part of this problem is also the mentality of the Indian worker. He demands the worker rights of 1st world Nordic nation even as he lives in filth. This kind of entitlement is unique to Indians. You aren't going to find it anywhere else

anon4cd41008/13/2019 (Tue) 03:31:5419070Mod
>>19063
>rent free

lmao imagine obsessing about a country thats not yours 24/7

take meds unironically tard

anon5e43d408/13/2019 (Tue) 03:59:5119071Mod
>>19070
>Lmao imagine obsessing about a country thats not yours 24/7
Like you Pajeets are obsessed with Pakistan.
Either way this thread was about discussing the Indian economy so I gave my two cents.
You can contribute as well if you actually knew anything about Econ. No point in shitting up the thread with ad hominems shitposter-kun.

anonc9f72708/13/2019 (Tue) 04:57:4219072Mod
>>19071
>SEZs in India won't work because of inter caste problems

bhangi, this isn't even worth ad-hominem tbh.

anonb3f68108/13/2019 (Tue) 04:58:2419073Mod
>>19071
The only thing I know about Paki economy is that their gdp is less than Mumbai alone. Come to think of it, that applies for you too, doesn't it Abdul?

anon18a35608/13/2019 (Tue) 13:24:2519111Mod
>>19071
>>19070
He is an Indian larping as a Bhangiladeshi if you cannot figure that out you should commit sudoku

anon38a45d08/13/2019 (Tue) 13:52:3119114Mod
>>19111
>exposing your low iq trying to call out someone else of low iq

toplel

anonaecf9308/13/2019 (Tue) 13:52:5719115Mod
>>19070
it's called intellectual curiosity you bhangi

anon18a35608/14/2019 (Wed) 01:36:0019131Mod
>>19115
This guy and Bangladeshi larper are samefag

anon74028008/14/2019 (Wed) 01:38:2019132Mod
>>19131
I'm that guy so your post is 100% factually incorrect

anon60a7b508/14/2019 (Wed) 01:41:3819133Mod
>>19132
kys Proxyfag

anon74028008/14/2019 (Wed) 01:42:4219134Mod
>>19131
I'm that guy so your post is 100% factually incorrect

anona0dcdb08/14/2019 (Wed) 09:54:5219173Mod
Bumping non cringe threads

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